Top 10 Calder Candidate for Fantasy Hockey 2012-2013

Starting this season, I will be start a new column for Fantasy Hockey. From time to time, I will list out my favorite NHL players to have break-out seasons under various categories, this week I will start off with top prospects most likely still available in the FA pool for your to pick as keepers.

I will also be accepting questions on your Hockey Pool’s line-up, trade analysis or starter questions. Please write your questions under the comment section under any posts.

10. Dougie Hamilton

The 9th overall draft by the Boston Bruins, Dougie Hamilton will perhaps be forever tied to Brian Burke, Tyler Seguin and Phil Kessel. Part of a two first round draft picks to land Kessel in Toronto, Burke has been highly criticized for giving up two top-10 overal picks for the move. Desperate for that N0.1 center, fans of the Maple Leafs can only imagine what their team would be like if they have Seguin in their line-up today. If Dougie Hamilton pans out as the highly-touted elite defenseman most expect to be, Burke’s trade may turn out to be the most lop-sided trade in recent NHL history.

Returning immediately after the draft to the OHL Niagara Ice Dogs, Hamilton scored an astonishing 72 points in only 50 games as a defenseman. If there was a lock-out, he would’ve surely joing the Bruins team out of the gate.

Coming into this training camp, captain and all-star defensman Zdeno Chara praised the young rookie as “…way better than (he) was at his age”.

Already playing alongside Zdeno Chara, Hamilton scored his first point of his career playing against the NY Rangers. As a 19-year-old, he’s already playing an average of 20:29 minutes per game and 3:39 PP minutes throughout the three games he’s played, and has been contributing to Bruins success during the injury to Dennis Seidenberg. So far he has 6 Hits, 2 Blocks and 9 Shot-On-Goals, you should use him as an Offensive D-Man.

It’s often more difficult for a young defenseman to win the Calder, and perhaps he’s not even the best rookie defenseman in the league this year, due to some new acquistion by the Oilers, he is a sure bet for deep fantasy pool format, and maybe already have decent fantasy value this season.

9. Mikhail Grigorenko

Heading into 2011′s Central Scouting Mid-Season Ranking, Mikhail Grigorenko was still the No.2 overall ranked draft-eligible player, behind Nail Yakupov. It made perfect sense, because Mikhail finished his season in the QMJHL with a whopping 85 points in just 59 games. Also on his resume was his 14 assists 18 points in just 7 games for the IIHF World U18 Championship, earning Russia a Bronze Medal.

But it’s his mediocre play (already close to 1 point per game production) during the playoff, 10 points in 11 games that lead to his huge drop in stock price during the draft. It was later revealed that he contracted Mononucleosis which caused the dropped in performance.

Buffalo Sabres were delighted to find Grigorenko still available at the 12th pick, and drafted the 6’3 200lb play-making center. Contrally to Dougie Hamilton, if there wasn’t a lockout, Mikhail is perhaps destined to return to the Quebec Ramparts for one more year of seasoning. But luckily, Mikhail picked up where he left off and scored 50 points in 32 games during his half season with Quebec before having another tremendous tournament at the World Junior Championship, scoring 6 points in 7 games, again winning the bronze for Russia. In fact, most would agreed that his offensive play was overshadowed by his defensive game, and is the best player on the team, even better than Yakupov.

Now with the big club for his 5 games try-out, Mikhail hasn’t been producing point-wise, but with the size-deficiency down the middle for the Sabres, and the lack of a creative centreman, Mikhail has an excellent chance of staying for the season.

Problem with Mikhail at this moment is ice-time, during the two games he’s played, he averaged just 12:06 minutes per game, playing alongside Steve Ott and Jochen Hecht, not exactly the most productive wingers. So he’s a long-shot for Calder at this moment, but from the flashes of his play-making ability shown so-far, and he previous track-record, look for him to break-out in February. His chances of moving up the roster is big considering both Cody Hodgson and Tyler Ennis were unable to stay healthy the past seasons.

Grigorenko may not have much fantasy value this season, but he will be amongst the top 20 centermen next season, so grab him if you are in a keeper’s league because Yahoo will rank him above 120 before next season begins.

8. Jakob Silfverberg

Drafted only in the 2nd round of the 2009 entry draft, Jakob Silfverberg was a 39th overall pick. Upon draft, he return to homeland Sweden to play for Brynas IF of the Elitserien. This turned out to be a smart move, as he produced 24 goals and 54 points in just 49 games, earning him the MVP for the SEL league. A 20-point jump from his 2010-2011 campaign quickly caught the eyes of the Ottawa Senators.

Quickly shipping him back to North America, Silfverberg played in Binghampton during the lockout which benefited him greatly in terms of adjusting to the smaller NA rinks. He was lost during the first few games, but quickly adjusted, earning a decent 29 points in 34 games.

His age will definitely benefit towards his chance of the Calder, being 22 yrs-old he’s more mature mentally and physically than the rest of the candidates. At 6’1 he is a combination of size and puck-handling skills. More of an assisting-winger, Silfverberg has never had more goals than assists during the past two seasons.

But perhaps the biggest bonus for Jakob is his linemates and playing time. So far this season, he has the second highest ice-time per game in terms of forwards, next only to Yakupov. Playing along Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek makes Silfverberg the only rookie this season to play on a team’s first line, so far. Jakob gets decent powerplay time as well, averaging 2:27 minutes per game.

Let’s be honest, nobody at this point in the season is expecting Silfverberg to win the Calder, he doesn’t get nearly the attention he deserves, with Yakupov, Schultz, Huberdeau and Tarasenko around. But like the year Jeff Skinner won the Calder, nobody expected the 7th overall to become rookie of the year, the attention that year was all focused on Taylor versus Tyler, remember?

With around 8% ownership in the Yahoo pool, and an O-Rank of 261, he’s probably still available for your taking. Look for him to start producing this season, if he can still remain on the line with Spezza. He’s already scored his first goal in his second game, so Jakob is fantasy-worthy even in shallow leagues this season.

7. Sven Baertschi

Sven Baertschi played 5 games in the NHL last March, and scored in all three games which he played for more than 10 minutes of icetime. Crowned by Calgary fans as the next Messiah, the 13th overall pick in 2011 enters this season with the highest expectations.

As a scoring machine during his WHL days, Sven played in a total of 113 across two seasons, and produced 179 points, close to 1.6 points per game. He’s even stronger playoff contributer earning 61 points in 43 playoff games. During the lockout, Sven played with Calgary’s AHL club in Abbostford and earned 17 points in 19 games, not exactly jaw-dropping but decent enough to earn a starting roster spot.

However, with such a major roster change during the off-season, the flames are pretty packed up-front with Tanguay, Cammalleri and Cervenka playing important minutes over the young rookie. Perhaps the high expectation is getting to his mind, in the first 3 outings with more than 10-minutes of ice-time, he was held pointless and a -1. In fact, in the most recent games, he’s demoted to the fourth line playing only 5-minutes or so.

With the way things are going, there’s a slight-chance he won’t pass his 5-games trial. But the odds are still high for him to stay, and if he does, he’s way too good to be play bottom-six minutes. Matt Stajan, Blake Comeau, Steve Begin and Roman Cervenka are also zero points so far, so look for Baertschi to replace Lee Stempaniak on the 2nd line once he cools down, or if some one goes down with an injury.

Baertschi was owned by 30% of the teams on Yahoo, but have since dropped to around 13%, if you have an empty roster slot, claim him off waivers as a sleeper for this season.

6. Mikael Granlund

Mikael Granlund is the only rookie within this list to be playing top-2 center position right now. On a Minnesota team which is known to be weak in the Center position after Mikko Koivu, the 9th-overall pick of 2010 entry-draft is the best offensive prospect within the Wild system.

After his draft, Granlund returned to HIFK and played two more years in the SM-liga, earning 87 points in 84 games through two seasons. He’s part of the Gold-Medal winning Finnish team in the World Junior Championship of 2011, with a point-per-game performance through 9 appearances.

At this moment, Granlund has one goal and one assist through 5 games with the Wild, playing an average of 15 minutes per game as the second-pivot. He has some PP duty on the second unit, averaging 2:42 minutes of PP Icetime. He’s the third-best faceoff man on the team, winning 25 out of 47 attempts.

His wingers Matt Cullen and Devin Setoguchi aren’t your traditional high-scoring wingers, especially with Cullen playing no.2 center for the team in previous seasons; however, both are very experienced and highly-talented. With most team’s best D-pairing focusing on the big-3 in Parise/Koivu/Heatley, there should be some open-ice for the 5’10″ rookie to generate some points this season.

Started out with 24% of the teams owned on Yahoo, he’s since dropped to 19%. The bright side of Granlund is that he’s a sure bet to stay with the big club this season, and with 2nd-line minutes, some powerplay time and faceoff opportunity, he’s an excellent keeper with high potential. If injury starts to affect the team, look for Granlund for immediate fantasy value this season in deeper leagues.

5. Alex Galchenyuk

The highly-touted 3rd-overall pick of the most recent entry-draft, American-born Russian Alex Galchenyuk is best known as the playmaker for countryman Nail Yakupov with the Sarnia Sting. In their first year with Sarnia, the tandem was responsible for 184 points in only 60+ games. Galchenyuk dished out 52 assists and 31 goals in just 68 games.

However, an ACL injury the following season would limit him to just 2 games with zero production. Fortunately, he was healthy enough to play with the OHL club during playoffs and earned 4 points in 6 games. Most thought that it was too late, the damage to his ranking was done, but to everyone’s surprise, the Montreal Canadiens with their 3rd-overall pick didn’t choose the bigger, stronger russian center in Grigorenko, instead choosing 6’1″ 198 lb Wisconsis-born Russian.

Most related Galchenyuk’s production success to his ice-time with Yakupov, but so far in the 4 games he’s played with the big club, he doesn’t look a bit out-of-place. Starting off as a second-line winger, Alex has now moved back to the Center on the 3rd line, playing between Brandon Prust and fellow rookie Brendan Gallagher.

Galchenyuk scored his first NHL goal in his second game, against the Panthers, with just 11 minutes of icetime. And against the Devils on the 27th, he earned two more assists, again with just 11 minutes of TOI. With 26 faceoff attempts, Galchenyuk has a winning percentage of just 34.6%.

Every season, the top-three draft picks always have additional fantasy value. Teams tend to expect more from them, and rightfully so. Started with 21% of ownership across all Yahoo leagues, Galchenyuk’s stock price is currently at 15%, with an O-Ranking of just 250. Although he has high potential of winning the Calder this season, he’s probably a choice for keeper’s league, or very deep leagues in one-season format.

4. Vladimir Tarasenko

As of today, out of the 30 Rookies eligible for the Calder Trophy, Vladmir Tarasenko has the most points, with his 4 goals and 4 assists, giving him 8 points in just 6 games. This is even more surprising by the fact that his 1.33 point per game is earned with just 14 minutes of average icetime, in a third-line winger role.

Of course, the St. Louis Blues is the ultimate 4-line team in NHL today. But his wingers and centerman, Andy McDonald and Alex Steen are considered the most offensive player of the game, making his performance that much more amazing. With a league-high amongst rookier of +5, Tarasenko can easily win the Calder, if it was be awarded today. But we are just 6 games into the season, so most should expect the 16th-overall pick to cool down as the season progress.

Powerplay duty helps Vladimir’s production, but his 2:48 average PPTOI ranks just 10th amongst rookies. So with 2 PP points in 6 games, Tarasenko is very efficient.

However, because of his amazing start, Tarasenko, who started out with just 18% of ownership is now owned by 83% of the teams, so it’s not likely that he’s still available on the waiver wire. If he’s still an FA in your league, you are being a moron not to pick him immediately.

The Blues are an amazing team, but with Hitchcock’s coaching, there’s always a risk of under-playing his rookies, so despite his high value today, if he cools down a bit, don’t be surprised for the coach to reduce his job duties faster that you can pronounce his last name. Honestly, he’s still my top candidate for the Calder, but if someone is offering you a top player in return, my advice is that you should probably sell high now.

3. Justin Schultz

Undoubtedly the best defensman amongst this year’s rookier, or perhaps even within the league (depending on who you are asking), Justin Schultz will forever haunts the Anaheim Ducks organization if he continue as his current pace of production.

Utilizing a loop-hole in the last CBA, Schultz de-registered himself from his WCHA team, and because the Ducks never signed him to a contract since drafting him 43rd overall in 2008, Schultz became the youngest UFA to never played an NHL game. Imagine what he would’ve been for the Ducks this season, sorry Duck fans, this one will really hurt.

Signed with Oilers, the 22-yr-old offensive-defenseman was touted as the best D-man available in the UFA pool, but critics still wonder if he can truly translate his point-per-game WCHA production to the NHL level. Fortunately for Justin, his adjustments was made much easier due to the lock-out as he was able to play high-level hockey with his future teammates in Oklahoma City.

Playing along Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle, Schultz had an amazing start in his AHL debute, producing 48 points in just 34 games, named as the AHL Player of the Month in November.

This honor might soon be a small footnote in his amazing fairly-tale story to the NHL, as he needs no additional adjustment at the NHL-level, with his 5 points in 4 games production so far. He plays top 2-D role night-in and night-out for the Oilers right now, with an average of 24 minutes per game.

If people are referring this Oiler team to the Great One’s version, then we are seeing the rapid development of another Paul Coffey.

Like Tarasenko, it’s probably impossible that Justin is still available in the FA pool, as 81% of the teams already own him in Yahoo. Add him if he’s still available, and use him every game in almost all formats, be it keepers or not.

2. Nail Yakupov

It’s hard to believe the last time a 1st overall pick won the Calder Trophy is already Patrick Kane in 2007. Superstar 1st-overall players like Steven Stamkos, John Tavares or even Sidney Crosby never won the Rookie-of-the-Year award. So perhaps Yakupov’s chance of winning the Calder isn’t that high.

However, no one will argue his amazing offensive talent, and as of today the Calder nomination is still somewhat biased towards forwards, Nail has the best chance of winning if we are counting point production.

The best advantage of Yakupov, when compared to the other nine rookies listed here is perhaps the team he’s playing on. The 1st-overall of 2012 is only the third best right-winger on his team, at this moment. Jordan Eberle and Ales Hemsky are both better players in many aspect, but mainly experience. The Oilers are the only team in recent NHL history to draft three 1st-overall forwards with three different natural position. It’s highly likely Oiler fans will soon see a “1st-overall line” of Hall/Nugent-Hopkins/Yakupov.

The insanely talented forward group makes team impossible to focus on just one or two players to stop. Although it took Yakupov his second NHL game to get his first goal, his second goal of his career is a simply amazing. But I highly doubt he’s concerned about the delay of his first goal, as it took his childhood idol Pavel Bure three games before registering his first point on an assist to Cliff Ronning in 1991.

Just thinking of his similarities with the Russian Rockets gives me chills. So it’s no surprise that I rank him second most likely to win the Calder this season.

Yakupov is playing decent minutes with the Oilers, with around 16-minutes per game on a line with Gagner and Hemsky. If this line sticks, look for Nail to have a point per game production in just his first season in NHL.

First-overalls are hard to find in keepers league, as they hold an even higher abstract fantasy value, but surprising Nail has a lower owner percentage with just 73% compared to 88% at the beginning of the season. His O-Rank is highest amongst this bunch, at 163. He has 10 Shot-on-Goals so far, with 4 Hits and 3 Blocks.

1. Jonathan Huberdeau

You are probably surprised at why I ranked the 3rd-overall in 2011 as the top candidate for this year’s Calder Trophy. Drafted just behind Oiler’s now-Super-center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Avalanche all-hitting-all-scoring youngest-captain Gabriel Landeskog, Huberdeau has the perfect mix of talent and experience as a rookie this season.

Huberdeau had an amazing pre-season performance even last season, earning 3 goals and 1 assist in just 5 games. But the decision of the club to send him back to Saint John for another year of seasoning is what makes him that much better this year.

In his first-ever NHL game, the highly-skilled center playing on the wing of Peter Mueller scored one goal and added two assists in just 14:25 minutes of icetime. He has since cooled down with no point production in his next four games. But with an increase in icetime and PP-icetime, we are seeing the development of the next superstar in the league.

Keep in mind that Huberdeau is not playing in his natural center position, as Kevin Dineen is simply easing him into top-6 minutes as the season progresses. The current mini-slump is simply him adjusting to the speed of the league, as one needs to remember his amazing offensive talent from his QMJHL days. In his second year with the Sea Dogs, Huberdeau scored an amazing 105 points in just 67 games, with 43 goals and 62 asssists. Even his latest stint with the club, during this year’s lock-out, Huberdeau scored 45 points in 30 games, with 48 PIMs.

In terms of fantasy value, amazingly he was only owned by 52% of the leagues in Yahoo, and only 49% today. With an O-Rank of 173, Huberdeau might still be available in your FA pool. Grab him while you can, he will be a stud in keeper’s league, and most likely a decent 3rd winger in deep leagues. Although he doesn’t contribute much Faceoffs at the moment, look for Yahoo to add LW eligibility to his status soon.

So this is my top ten candidates for the Calder, please do let me know what you think, and drop me any question about your fantasy hockey line-up.

Roberto Luongo Trade Rumor.

First off, like to apologize for my 2 year absence from hockey blogging. I’ve been way too busy with work and family, but now that things are under control, I am back! Hope readers are still interested in what I have to say.

This is an interesting time to be back. It’s a little bit like what the league is going through at the moment, trying to get fans back from their CBA fiasco. My apology, similar to what many GMs’ been saying, is to the fans of this blog. It’s been a prolonged stoppage, hope you will still have me back in your lives.

Anyways, enough about that, let’s get right to it.

Before I start, I have to say that Luoi has been such a professional about all this, ever since the first day he expressed his willingness to waive his NTC. All the interviews, the repeating questions about how he feels and all the BS, Roberto handled all that with grace and dignity. Of course Schneider has been saying all the right things as well.

The trade rumors kicked up another notch yesterday with Vancouver Sun’s Cam Cole reporting a quote from Gillis, this is what MG said:

“We have a potential deal in place with one team that has to do something with another player that they have – and it’s not who anybody thinks it is – and so we have to wait. (But) we’ve been offered packages that don’t fit what our plan is, what we need”

Of course, the first reaction most of us have to this quote is why is Gillis saying this? He’s been tight-mouthed about potential suitors, why all-of-a-sudden this disclosure? Why now?!

The easier explanation is that he or Luongo is getting impatient, a few more sub-par performances from Luongo will greatly hurt his stock price. If Gillis wants to sell, he should probably do this sooner than later. I think that the Canucks are expecting Cory Schneider to play well, and if the team has a legitimate chance of competing for the cup, he will probably hold onto Luongo until the summer, whether they win the cup or not.

Telling everyone that a deal is coming, especially with a “Mystery Team” is a way of pushing Toronto (or whichever team is actually in discussion with Gillis) to quickly up their offer, so a deal can be done. Note that Gillis has been telling everyone that he has never consider absorbing Luongo’s cap via trading back a heavy contract from any potential teams, because Roberto is an All-Star who deserves every penny of his hefty contract.

But of course, there’s the other possibility of Gillis telling the truth. The Canucks ARE close to a deal with a team outside of the most reported rumors, namely the Maple Leafs, the Panthers and the Flyers. If we believe Gillis, then we should analyze what he said, especially about this “Mystery Team” having to “do something with another player that they have”.

What does “Something” means? Since the 23-man roster has been set, this can only mean (a) Trade, (b) Waiver or (c) Sent Home. So by looking closely at recent transactions, we may be able to find more clues.

(1) Blackhawks acquiring G Henrik Karlsson from Calgary for a 7th rounder.

This can be meaningful. Ray Emery’s $1.15M contract will be up by the season end. If Chicago is going to fit Luongo’s $5.3M Cap Hit, they will most likely not renew with Emery. If Chicago is to make a trade, I think Canucks will be looking for a goalie in return. Let’s say if  Crawford is one of the piece going back the other way, this will leave Chicago with non-NHL calibre back-up goalie going forward.

Perhaps trading for Henrik Karlsson is not just an AHL depth move, but rather a preparation for backing up Luongo in the future.

I predict a deal might be there if:

Chicago gets
Roberto Luongo ($5.33M)
3rd Rounder 2013

Vancouver gets 
Corey Crawford ($2.67M)
Dave Bolland ($3.37M)
2nd Rounder 2013

Both Crawford and Bolland have one more year on their contracts. This move doesn’t really help Canucks in the long run, except moving the salary. But in the short run, they’ve downgraded their G for the C position.

(2) Devils signing Zajac to 8-year contact of $46M.

This transaction is a week old, you say? True, but this extends further. With Adam Henrique out with a wrist injury, this signing was  significant beyond the surface. Could Lou be planning a movement within his centermen, hence locking down his No.1 C for the long term.

Henrique has tons of potential, and was carrying the team why Zajac was injured last season, why did Lou Lamoriello feel he needs to sign him to the max length allowed in the new CBA?

Could the Devils be this “Mystery Team”? We know that Lou built his team from back to front. The all-star goalie has always been the heart and soul of any Devils team. With Future-Hall-of-Fame goaltender Martin Brodeur, turning 41 in May, looks to retire next season, AND Johan Hedberg turning 40 in May, New Jersey are in much need of finding the No.1 Goalie for the next decade.

Gillis is very similar to Lamoriello in his ability to create diversion make trades outside of anyone’s expectations. Perhaps, Gillis is referring the “something” to be waiting for Henrique to return from IR, so the Devils can trade him? If so, coach Peter DeBoer recently said his star forward should return within 10 days.

I predict this deal will work for both teams:

New Jersey gets
Roberto Luongo ($5.33M)
Jordan Schroeder ($0.994M)

Vancouver gets
Adam Henrique ($0.846M)
Johan Hedberg ($1.4M)

With this, Vancouver gets a high-end talent Center who is young (22 yrs.old) and can play in most situations. Henrique proved that he’s a playoff contributor last season as well, something the Canucks have always lack. A solid veteran backup in Hedberg, one who can offer experience and advice to Schneider without seriously threatening him. Hedberg is familiar with the Canucks organization, as this will be his second stint in Vancouver.

New Jersey will get their next “Broduer”, or at least a top 10 Goalie in the league. They also get younger with a first round centerman in Schroeder, with excellent offensive upside. The center position will be (1) Zajac (2) Josefson (3) Gionta (4) Schroeder.

This deal might involved some salary going back Vancouver’s way, or the Devils may consider buying out Brodeur’s last year contract by season’s end. New Jersey can fit Luongo within the 70M ceiling this season, it’s next season they are worried about.

Free Agents 2010-2011.

With about 16 games left in the regular seasons, some teams are looking forward to the playoffs, but other teams are quickly looking forward to the beginning of free agency on July 1st.

There are some interesting players on the market this season, and I will focus on talking about a couple today.

Ilya Kovalchuk

First and foremost, Ilya Kovalchuk is perhaps the biggest name in the market this year. Failing to re-sign him in Atlanta, Don Waddell shipped the All-star left-winger to the Devils. Simply looking at the return going back to the Thrashers, I don’t think the Devils have any insurance Kovalchuk will sign back with New Jersey in the off-season. Don’t get me wrong, I think Bergfors and Oduya are decent players, but they aren’t even close in terms of value, even if you late first-rounder.

Ilya will demand a huge salary, that much is given. Somewhere between $8-million to $10-million per season, and perhaps a $6-million cap-hit, if he signs to a very very long contract. At this point in the league, there is only about eight teams which can afford him; nine if you want to slice it very thin, Colorado can officially afford him, but the space is very tight. Of course, the situation will be very different after the season, with UFAs leaving their teams, and teams will have more room in terms of cap-space.

In the cap-era, with the ceiling on salary (20% of the team’s total salary), the variations on the salary offered across teams is very small. Most if not all teams which are interested in signing him will give him the maximum, unless Ilya is willing to take a discount on a favored team. Imagine how this will look, if after all the good thing Kovalchuk has said about Atlanta, he signs with New York at a lower price. Of course, this is assuming the rumors of Waddell offering Kovalchuk the maximum salary is true.

If the salary is similar, and since he just only 26, most teams will offered at-least a 12-year contract to lower the cap-hit. At 38, Kovie can still be very productive, hence the NHL probably can’t challenge such an offer from any team.

So I guess it will be up to his personal preference which team he signs, since there won’t be any opportunity costs for signing with any team. After almost eight seasons in a bottom-feeding team, I am guessing he will choose a cup-contender, or at least a team with the best shot for a run at the cup.

Among the teams currently able to sign Kovalchuk, I am guessing Dallas and Nashville have the best shot at the cup in the near future. Dallas didn’t do much during the trade deadline, with Modano retiring and Turco out, the Stars will be a strong buyer in the free-agent pool. Nashville is currently bound for playoffs this season, and with their core pretty much intact, adding Kovalchuk will make them a serious contender.

I will also throw in the Islanders as well. Although they are having a disastrous season, their youth-core is very strong, and will be the next Chicago Blackhawks sooner rather than later. Plus, Kovalchuk can surely enjoy living in New York.

Patrick Marleau

Yes, rumor has it, that Doug Wilson is keen on re-signing Marleau, but no talks are allowed during the season.

Marleau is having a fantastic season, 40 goals and 30 assists in only 64 games!! Goal production-wise, this is his best season ever, since playing in the NHL. At this pace, Marleau should finish somewhere around 87 points, also another personal best.

His production, of course, is a direct result of playing on the best line in hockey right now, along-side Thorton and Heatley. Marleau is 31, and can probably play for 6 to 7 more years, so he still has some mileage in him.

On the surface, it does make a lot of sense to re-sign him, and keep the most lethal line-up intact. But this will all depend on their play-off performance this year. If the Sharks win the cup, then Wilson will surely let him walk, since the costs of his other players will rise after the cup.

If they exit early, Wilson will probably not risk signing a long-extension with Marleau, at $6.5-million per season, a repeat of his 07-08 season will be devastating. Relieving the 6.5 million will be a smart move, since the salary spread is lop-sided to the forwards in San Jose. The first-line alone costs $21-million, more than 1/3 of the teams’ total cap. Dan Boyle costs another $6.6-million, plus Nabokov, who Wilson still have to sign, costs another $5.4-million cap. So five players together costs 60% of the teams’ salary. I don’t need to stress how risky this is.

Of course the best argument is simply the fact that Thornton and Heatley are such talented players that they don’t need Marleau to play on their wing to be productive. One only need to see how productive Marleau is when his is placed on a line with Pavelski and Clowe, to understand his true value.

Don’t forget how well Setoguchi played early on in the season, and you will agree that he is a great replacement on the top line, especially when you look at his $1.2-million price-tag.

The better Marleau plays, the bigger the discrepancies between how much he thinks he should make and how much Wilson can offer him.

When the season is over, do you think there is a team out there willing to offer more than $6.5-million for a 80+ point guy?? Do you think Marleau will take a significant pay-cut to stay in San Jose??

So, let’s just say Marleau is interested to sign with some other team, which team out there fits him?

I’d say if Marleau does leave, I think there’s a good chance he will end up in Colorado. The Avs didn’t expect their rebuilding process to mature so quickly, but with their young players playing so well, Colorado has a decent shot at the cup sooner than later. If they can sign a veteran player like Marleau, the team will suddenly become a strong contender. After-all, they have the cap-space to sign him with a raise.

Another team might surprise you, I think the Leafs will be interested in Marleau as well. Kovalchuk and Marleau are by far the best options for Burke, in terms of acquiring talent for his team. Kovalchuk’s style of play doesn’t really fit Burke’s plan, but Marleau on the other hand is a Burke-player. Coach Ron Wilson’s years with the Sharks may also be provide a pull to land Marleau in Toronto.

Although cap-wise, the Leafs can’t afford Marleau at this moment, but with the Defensive corp built with Kaberle, Phaneuf, Komisarek, Beauchemin, and Schenn, Burke won’t be re-signing Van Ryn and Exelby. Finger will probably be traded around the draft for a pick. With that, the Leafs will free up $7.2-million, enough to sign Marleau.

This will be smart too, since Burke gave up this year’s and next year’s first-rounder for Kessel, he will need to do something big in the off-season to make up for the embarrassments during the coming entry draft.

Alberts, Zimmerman and Stastny.

The trading deadline for 2010 is now history, and although we saw a record-breaking 31 trades involving a massive 55 players and 25 draft picks, most of the trades involved depth and role players.

We didn’t see the Hossa, Jokinen, Richards types of deals as we saw in the past, an expected result of the maturation of the cap-restricted era. Most teams simply aren’t able to pull off any big trades with overpaid salaries and long contracts in their better or not-so-better players.

So it wasn’t surprising so see Mike Gillis making only three minor trades this season.

Coming into this year’s deadline, as I wrote in my previous posts, the Canucks was in an odd situation. They didn’t have any significant needs in terms of upgrade. This is relative, of course, but if you look at the Bruins or the Flames, Boston clearly needs some kind of offense upgrade with the loss of Kessel to Toronto. The Flames hanging on to a chance for a playoff berth needs to improve their defense with the departure of Phaneuf.

On the contrary, the Canucks loaded up on defense during the off-seasons, to an extent where the team can split into two complete preseason-squad. With the likes of Bieska, Mitchell, Salo, Edler, O’Brien, Ehrhoff, Rome, Schneider, Lukowich and Baumgartner, who’d ever thought the team will need to further add defensemen?

However as the season progressed, injuries as well as other factors set in. The remarks or attitudes of Matthieu Schneider, and the constant injuries to the top 3 regular defensemen greatly affected the team. With Baumgartner called up to fill in the holes left open by Bieska and Mitchell, Gillis is again forced to deal for a D-man.

Before the deadline, Gillis had hinted that he’d like to acquire a third-line forward, perhaps a centerman with a better physical presence or scoring abilities. Coach Vigneault seems to be happy with his top two lines as well as the grit of his fourth-line.

There aren’t a lot of top-rank players on the trading block this season. The most sought after forwards were probably Wolski, Ponikarovsky, Modin, Whitney and Stempniac??!! But with only about 500K to spare in cap space, and the depleted defensive corp, the Canucks will have to trade one of their roster players to make that happen. A risk Gillis probably isn’t going to make.

The good news is, part of that wish was granted after the Olympics, as the return of Pavol Demitra and his spectacular play for Team Slovak provides just that depth in the forward lines. Demitra’s reunion with Kesler to form the new RPM line along with new “M” Mason Raymond proved success in the recent games.

Samuelsson got bumped to the third line (a potential problem in the making), but the sudden resurgence of Kyle Wellwood could prove great production if the team can stay out of the box so the third line can get enough ice-time.

So at the end of the day (or the beginning of the day…) Gillis is left with JUST getting a defenseman. But who isn’t?

Anyways, let’s take a look at the other two trades first.

Sean Zimmerman + conditional 6th round pick for Matthieu Schneider. ZimmerWho??!!

Yes, if you try to wiki Sean, he’s probably one of the few players you don’t get any results on. All I know is that he’s a 6th round pick in 2005 by the Devils. So if we add the conditional 6th round pick, it’s probably like two Zimmermen for a Schneider.

Great deal~ Since we won’t be using Schneider for the remainder of the season, and his contract expires in the summer, two Zimmermen are better than a bag of hockey pucks.

Yan Stastny, on the other hand is famous. Not so much for his own accomplishments – yet, he’s the brother of Avalanche start center Paul Stastny and son of Hall-of-famer Peter Stastny.

Yan was drafted 259th overall in 2002, a centerman who split his time between the NHL and AHL throughout the past eight years. Yan has never spent an entire season with any NHL club, including his stops at Oilers, Bruins and Blues.

Yan is Manitoba-bound, plain and simple.

This leaves us with the Andrew Alberts trade.

Andrew Alberts, drafted in the sixth round in 2001, is a giant on the blue-line. At 6’5 weighing 230 pounds, Alberts has very limited offensive upside, instead he is a hard-hitting stay-at-home defenseman. In fact, Alberts had never scored more than one goal per season in five of his NHL years (Bruins, Flyers, Hurricanes), except this season, which he now has two.

However, the Canucks have plenty of offensive defenseman, a physical and reliable D-man may be just what they need for success in the post-seasons, especially with Mitchell’s status unclear.

But just how reliable is Alberts? If the +/- rating means anything, which I believe it does somewhat, Alberts in a very weak Carolina team was still able to get a team-high +7 rating as oppose to the teams -27. So hopefully, he can provide that confidence factor in the back-end for his new teammates.

I mean, after all, a 3rd-rounder in a mediocre draft year for a proven 28-year-old NHL-er with one more year contract at $1-million sounds very reasonable.

Stamkos not drafted by Team Canada.

Steven Stamkos has the third most goals amongst all Canadian NHL players before the break, Crosby (42) Marleau (38) Stamkos (35). In fact, since Dec 30th, Stamkos has more points than any players on the Team Canada’s roster. In this span of 21 games, he has 14 goals, and 19 assists for a total of 33 points.

Stamkos is currently riding a franchise record-tying 13-game point streak, and was also recognized by the NHL as the first star of the week just prior to the Olympic break.

A first-overall pick in 2008, Steven Stamkos is everything the Tampa Bay Lightning was hoping for when the slumping team won their first draft lottery in ten years, since drafting Vincent Lecavalier in 1998.

A player so young with so much offensive talent, Stamkos is on pace to doubling his point production from last year with somewhere close to 94 points in 82 games.

Yet, Stamkos wasn’t enlisted in Team Canada for the Olympics this year.

Nope, he wasn’t included when Team Canada Executive Director Steve Yzerman first announced the roster on Dec 30; but then Ryan Getzalf went down with injury, and Yzerman has another chance to call upon the best player available since Dec 30.

Instead of calling Stamkos, Yzerman asked Jeff Carter of the Philadelphia Flyers to prepare to fly to Vancouver. Carter only has 27 goals and 25 assists this season. So in terms of point-production, Carter is nowhere near Stamkos’ 35 goals and 35 assists. In terms of +/-, Stamkos is +4 and Carter is +8, so hardly a huge difference. As for physicality, in terms of penalty minutes, Carter has 32 and Stamkos has 28, so again not a big difference.

What about weight and size??

Jeff Carter is registered at 6’3″ 200 pounds, while Steven Stamkos is at 6’1″ 194 pounds. So yes, Carter is slightly bigger than Stamkos, but I honestly don’t think that the 6 pounds makes that big of a difference, there are plenty of size and grit on the team already, with players like Rick Nash, Jerome Iginla, Chris Pronger and Mike Richards…etc.

Maybe it’s the age factor? Carter is five years older than Stamkos, and in NHL years, it can mean a whole lot of difference.

Of couse, this is all “moo-point” since Getzlaf is healthy enough to play, and so far Team Canada is still undefeated (after the 8-0 win against Norway). But if we still recall what happened in Turin, how Sidney Crosby wasn’t enlisted due to his young age and under-size, and how team Canada ended up 7th place in a 12-team tournament!!! (Behind Switzerland!!!)

Sidney Crosby would eventually end up with a record-breaking 102 points that NHL season.

Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself, for Yzerman’s sake.

Done deal.

Finally, after years of speculation, reported here as early as July 2008, the second-best Russian winger is off the market…for at least three more months.

Official reports, confirmed by TSN here that Thrashers Kovalchuk along with defenseman Anssi Salmela have been traded to the New Jersey Devils for John Oduya, Niclas Bergfors, Patrice Cormier and a 2010 1st-rounder.

On the surface, this deal is pretty similar to a deal that landed Marian Hossa in Pittsburgh two seasons ago for the same reason of impending UFA status.

Here are the stats for the players involved:

Player	Age	Salary	GP	G	A	Pts	Drafted
Going to New Jersey
Ilya Kovalchuk (LW)	26	6.4M	49	31	27	58	1st overall 2001
Anssi Salmela (D)	25	0.6M	29	1	4	5	Undrafted
Going to Atlanta
John Oduya (D)	27	3.5M	40	2	2	4	221st overall 2001
Niclas Bergfors (LRW)	22	0.8M	54	13	14	27	23rd overall 2005
Patrice Cormier (C)	19	—-	–	–	–	–	54th overall 2008
2010 1st Rounder	—-	—-	–	–	–	–	—–

Compared to the Hossa trade in 08, which shipped Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis to Pittsburgh for Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito and 1st Rounder, this trade is less rewarding for the Thrasher, if you consider the value of Kovalchuk versus Hossa to the franchise.

The key pieces here for Atlanta is Oduya, a 2010 Swedish Olympian who has matured into a top-4 puck-moving defenseman with unreliable scoring upside. In 40 games this season, however, he’s only managed to find the net twice in 40 games, hardly a comparison to Colby Armstrong during Hossa’s trade.

The other key piece is Niclas Bergfors, a first-rounder in 2005, who was in and out of the main club since drafted by New Jersey. This is his first full season with the club, and is playing some decent hockey as a 2nd-line right-winger, along-side linemates Zubrus and Rolston. In 54 games he’s played, he notched 13 goals and 14 assists; nothing to get too excited about, but he’s still only 22, and this production is achieved under a defensive-style of hockey in New Jersey.

Salmela and Cormier are unproven spare-parts at this moment.

As for the 1st-rounder, the Devils rank fifth in the entire league right now, so less a monumental meltdown, this will only be a late first-round pick in a mediocre draft-year.

(Side note: It’s been mentioned that the team also swapped 2nd rounder in the 2010 draft, which of course goes favor to NJ)

This doesn’t sound like an attractive deal to me, but considering all the rumors lately, this seems like the best deal by some margin, since Atlanta GM Don Waddell was pretty quick to pull the trigger after announcing failure to re-sign his star player. It goes to show the market value for an unsigned elite player in today’s NHL.

The next question for Devils fans is of course, whether the team has any chance of re-signing Ilya in the off-season. Nothing is certain at this moment, but on paper, the Devils picked up an extra $2.7M in salary from this trade. The team is very close to the cap with less than $2-million cap space right now. Although there will be ten UFA be the end of this season, none of them have salary higher than $1-million each.

Right now, in NHL, the maximum salary a team can offer any player is 20% of the teams’ payroll. If the Devils is willing to do that, which they have to, according to expectations coming from Kovalchuk’s camp, they will have to offer $11-million to retain Kovalchuk’s service. This will be very difficult to do, since the team will be at least $2-million short in cap-space.

There are ways to maneuver around this, just like what Chicago did with Hossa, New York with Gaborik or Vancouver with Luongo. New Jersey will probably have to offer a 15-year contract and sign Ilya until he’s 42 to spread the salary cap to about $7-million per season. This will of course tied New Jersey down for many many years to come.

Lou Lamoriello might not want to do this, since home-grown super-talent Zach Parise’s contract will be up after next season. At $3.13M per season, Parise is bound to get a huge raise, this must be something the crafty New Jersey GM is constantly thinking about.

Of course, the last question is, why do they need Kovalchuk??

The Devils now sit 2nd in the East with 72Pts, top of the Atlantic division. The team’s top left-winger Parise has just one fewer points than Kovalchuk. How will Jacques Lemaire fit Kovalchuk into his line-up. Unless one of Parise or Kovalchuk switches to play right-wing, one of them will have to play a 2nd line role, so who should that be??

Could this simply be a move for the post-season? Fitting the definition of a “rental” player? This blogger thinks likely, especially if you consider the price they paid for Ilya’s service. After all, Kovalchuk’s game doesn’t exactly fit with Lemaire’s style of hockey. Since he is finally calling the shots, after eight years of service in Atlanta, does Lamoriello honestly believe he will sign back??

Anyways, as cliche as this might sound, with this Kovalchuk trade, the flood-gate is now open, I surely expect more domino effects from this before the Olympics.

Signing out.

Ryan, Niedermeyer and 1st for Kovalchuk.

Hearing rumors that Anaheim is closing in on a deal to land Kovalchuk. I don’t know any of the specifics, but just thought that it is interesting what the Ducks did this week which allows them to make this trade.

I have been hearing a lot of other BS rumors, teams like Vancouver, Los Angeles or even Chicago doesn’t make sense at all. You don’t make these huge trade when your team in on a winning streak. More importantly, the teams trading for Kovie wants to sign him in the offseason. There’s no way any GM will want a $10M second-liner, and Kovie won’t signed to any team which doesn’t use him as a top unit. This rules out Vancouver.

Kings are winning a lot of games of late. The chemistry of Kopitar and Ryan Smyth is great, and you don’t swap your top LW to RW under these circumstances. Chicago rumors is even crazier, they’ve sign Hossa just to provide that extra scoring power, they don’t need any more, especially when it costs you at least $7M in cap space. To trade Hossa and his huge contract to Atlanta is even crazier, because there’s no guarantee on Kovie signing in Chicago.

On the other hand, the Ducks are really interesting. Just this week, Bob Murray traded away goaltender Giguere and his $6M contract to the Leafs, but picked up $8M back. A $4M Toskala and $4M Blake for $6M Giguere???!! With Giguere, the Ducks can at least rotate him with Hiller, but who’d want to take a risk with Toskala now??

Of course, Toskala’s contract expires next season, so he’s just a tactic for Murray to offload $2M salary. Blake, despite overpaid, his cap-hit will be dropped to 3M next season, and you can at least dress him, which is better than paying $6M for Giguere to sit at the bench.

But if you look closer, maybe it’s more than that. What if this is just a step to try to land Kovalchuk? We all know that Niedermeyer is worth nothing at this moment for the Ducks. The team is out of playoff picture, and Scott is 35 and an impending UFA.

If you do this:

Atlanta Thrashers
Bobby Ryan ($1.92M impending RFA)
Scott Niedermeyer ($6M impedning UFA)
1st rounder 2010

Anaheim Ducks
Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.4M impending UFA)

What you get is a somewhat balance shift of cap space, with $1.5M extra for Atlanta which they can easily absorb. The Ducks get the best player, and a natural LW to play with Getzlaf and Perry, Oouuuugh that’s scary… Lose a high pick and Ryan. Kovalchuk might not sign back, but with the off-loaded salary in the Giguere trade (saved $3M in 2010) and Niedermeyer ($6M in 2010), Anaheim can offer Ilya the maxmium pay, a luxury not a lot of teams have. Ryan is RFA, so they need to negotiate with him anyways, and possible match other people’s offer sheet, so trading him away may not be all bad. The 1st rounder will be high, but the draft is only mediocre in 2010.

For Atlanta, they get a player which can immediately help their playoff drive. Bobby Ryan is having a breakout season, 24G 43Points in just 56 games. Ryan is young just 23 year old, and he can play both wings. Ryan is RFA, and Atlanta has cap room to ensure they can sign him, even if it’s slightly overpaid. You also get a superstar defenseman in Niedermeyer who’s looking for a final shot at the cup. The 1st rounder from Ducks will be high, so that itself is attractive.

It works for the players too, Ryan is often logging 2nd-line time, although he’s used in special teams as well. In Atlanta, he will be the franchise face with tons of ice-time. Again Scott gets his last shot at the playoffs, and Kovalchuk will choose which teams he wants to play as it is the case since the beginning of this whole mess.

So what do you think?