PUCK ALERT – by Saint Pako

Hi everyone.

You can smell it in the air that trading deadline is looming, especially when you hear trade rumors flying all over the place. This year’s edition of the poster boy is someone truly extra-ordinary. Kovalchuk, the only franchise player the Thrashers have, ever since Heatley and Hossa left, is perhaps the best player you can find out in the market, if not the best player in the NHL “period”.

This may be the reason why blogs, and semi-commentators throughout the hockey world find writing articles about the Russian superstar irresistible, no matter how in-sensible this is.

As I write this, Eklund is speculating an imminent trade for Kovalchuk by the Kings, Bruins, Hawks, Flyers and even the Canucks. It understandable, and almost predictable that Eklund will just throw out any team he feels have a slightest chance of this happening. But for TSN hockey insider Bob McKenzie to twit about Kovalchuk possibly landing in Calgary really does it for me, and I have to come out and say something.

No, Kovalchuk ISN’T going anyway, guys, he will be back with Atlanta next seasons, and many many more seasons after that.

Another thing I want to say is, no the Canucks WON’T be trading for Kovalchuk, it makes no sense what-so-ever.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Kovalchuk, and would probably poop my pants if this happens, but the chance of this happening is probably slimmer than Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer wearing an “I’m a Mac” T-shirt.

Kovalchuk is asking for salary somewhere in the neighborhood of $10M per season, and he won’t consider signing with any other team for less than that. With how the Sedins are playing right now with Burrows, the Canucks don’t need a $10M forward to do what a $2M Burrows can. It’s even more crazy to imagine Kovalchuk signing on with the Canucks if he’s playing alongside Kesler and Samuelsson as a 2nd line LW. And we haven’t even begin what the Canucks can offer to Atlanta just to land him in Vancouver in the first place, let alone re-signing him.

So, no, unfortunately, this won’t happen for the Canucks. But what about the other teams??

Yes, I can imagine teams like the Kings, Bruins, Hawks and Flyers are drooling over the thought of Kovie in their line-up. But who isn’t? I think the Red Wings can use someone like Ilya, what about the Avs or the Canadiens?? Of course they would, but at what price??

The current situation is, from what I’ve heard, is that Waddell hasn’t allowed any other teams to talk to Kovie’s agent, fearing that any talks with other will affect their price and the chance of signing Ilya back. Ilya is pretty content will just riding out the season, and give his last efforts to get the Thrashers into playoffs and do some damage before he bolt in the offseason. Ilya knows that only in the open market will he be able to get the most, of course he doesn’t mind helping his old team if he is able to bring someone back the other way, but if it doesn’t happen, he probably wouldn’t lose too much sleep over it either.

Waddell, on the other hand, needs to get the most from Kovie, and he can only do that if he can trade a signed Kovalchuk. A rental Kovalchuk can probably bring him half or a quarter of his worth. However this will not happen if Waddell doesn’t allow Kovie’s agent to talk to any teams.

So what does this mean??

If Waddell is telling everyone that the Thrashers are considering trading Kovalchuk, but he’s not doing anything to help that cause, it could only mean that he isn’t really trying to trade him. One point in their negotiation, Waddell and Kovie were very close to getting it done. Rumor has it that the salary amount is agreed upon, just the number of years was settled. If a superstar like Kovalchuk is happy to stay in a losing team like the Thrashers, and the only obstacle is the $$$, with the cap not being an issue, this usually works out to the favor of the player.

I mean, if Kovalchuk is unhappy with the team and is opting to leave, like the recent story with another Thrasher-drafted superstar, it’s one thing, but if he’s happy to stay???

Think of it this way, if Waddell isn’t able to get a completely lopsided deal for Kovalchuk, and time is running out, do you honestly think that Waddell will let him walk for nothing?? I don’t think Waddell will be willing to accept any sub-par offer for Kovalchuk, if the other option is to just give what Kovie wants.

What’s the worst that’s going to happen if Waddell sign him to the allowed maximum or for a shorter period?? So yeah, his Cap-hit is higher, but Waddell can still trade a $10M Kovalchuk easily next season, don’t forget a signed-Kovalchuk is worth so so so much more than a rental version.

So there you have it, I don’t think Kovalchuk is going anywhere this season, and with what he means to the team and the marketing success of the team, I think that once Kovalchuk is signed, Waddell won’t be trading him next season either. What you are seeing right now, is merely a game of bluff.

Oh oh oh!!!! This is getting very interesting, I’ve been getting Twits from Rogers about a possible Frolov trade in the making. Apparently Dean Lombardi has been trying to continue improving their defensive units. A 14th place finish in the Western Conference last season extends the Kings missing the playoffs six consecutive years.

With the addition of Ryan Smyth, their top unit of Smyth/Kopitar/Brown allows the Kings some room to improve other aspects of their game, namely their defense.

With Alexander Frolov entering his last year of his contract, at 27 Frolov has stated his wish to contend for the cup, Lombardi knows that if he is to shop his all-star left-winger, he can’t afford to wait until season begins.

With the recent acquisition of Ehrhoff, Lukowich and Schneider, Gillis has equipped his team with a lot of tradeable assets. Rumors are gathering steam on a deal that will bring Demitra back to Los Angeles, where he played during the 2005-2006 season. Also part of the deal is physical defenseman Shane O’Brien and a 2010 3rd rounder.

To Canucks:

Alex Frolov (UFA by 2010)

To Kings:

Pavol Demitra (UFA by 2010)
Shane O’Brien (RFA by 2010)
2010 3rd-rounder

This will actually reduce the salary hit on Canucks by $2.7-million. As I heard, the 3rd-rounder is compensatory for the cap absorption. The Kings currently sits about $8-million under the Cap.

With less than 24 hours to go until July 1st, people are expecting a lot of big deals to happen immediately, but I am thinking otherwise.

Just like this year’s Trading Deadline as well as the Entry Draft, there won’t be a lot of deals like in the past. First, the Capology mindset has finally settled with most teams, as GMs are more concern about balancing their budget for next season. But most importantly, with the latest CBA agreement to expire the end of next season, and an expected drop in team caps in the future, most GMs aren’t too enthusiastic about locking up long term huge contracts.

So for fans who loved big trades during the beginning of Free Agency season like yours truly, don’t hold our breath yet, It might take much longer this year.

Of course, I still expect some big signings announced in the next couple of hours as teams will desperately try to re-sign their UFAs. One of those teams is the Canucks.

It’s almost noon time now in Sweden, so I think Gillis is probably in a meeting with the Sedins and their agent J.P. Barry. I don’t think the Sedins will get the 12-year $63-million offer, and I think neither do they. But I do think that if Gillis wants even a shot at signing the Twins, the terms will probably be around 6 to 8 years. If the Canucks can manage to convince the Twins to sign without a No-Trade-Clause, 8 years at an average of $6-million per season should be very attractive for the Sedins.

It will most likely be heavy up-front, dropping to around $4.5-million in the last 3 years of the contract. Honestly, the Sedins are still very young, and if it doesn’t work out in the next two or three years, they are still very marketable commodity in terms of trade value. So why not sign them longer. Having said that, if I am Gillis, I might as well pay them higher now for another year to buy some time to re-negotiate.

As for Luongo, I personally believe that he’s a done deal. It’s just about when Gillis want to announce his signing. If the Canucks can’t sign the Sedins in time before July 1st, Gillis will want to keep fans content with such an announcement.

There is plenty of options for Plan B at this moment. Gaborik and Cammalleri are excellent choices to fill the gaps, but both combined might be higher than what the Sedins are asking for. You always overpay with free agents, this is a fact. With teams trying to fight for “free” goods, they tend to pay higher than what the players are really worth. So if you think about it, it actually makes more sense to sign your own pending-UFAs if they are quite happy with their team. You rarely hear teams getting screwed for re-signing their UFA’s.

So what about Gaborik, am I excited about him possibly signing with the team? Well, if you asked me this question a year ago, I would have xxxx my pants just thinking of my favorite player signing with my favorite team. But if you ask me today, I would probably think we will overpay him, since this will only happen if the Sedins don’t re-sign, and Gaborik will demand a huge salary knowing how the Canucks desperately need him and especially because this is his first Free Agency season.

As for other rumors of Bouwmeester, Niedermayer or Hossa signing, they are just plain stupid. Bouwmeester has probably informed the Panthers of his interest before the team offer his rights to the Flames. Jay is from Alberta, with a solid offer from Sutter, a strong defense corp support in Phaneuf, Aucoin and Regehr, and the chance to play for the Stanley Cup, why wouldn’t he sign?

Niedermayer is also a done deal with the Ducks, why else would they trade Pronger during the Draft if they aren’t somewhat certain of Scott’s return. Yes, he only said he will return to play next season and didn’t specify where, but he’s too classy a player to screw his former team that way. Plus, the Canucks won’t sign both Scott and Rob, if he wants to play with his brother until they retire, Anaheim is probably his only choice for now.

Hossa is even more far-fetched. Unless Marian has completely given up on winning the Cup, do you think he will sign with the Canucks after two consecutive playoff final apperances?? He wants the Cup, and he wants it next season. With the Cap pretty much what it was last year, I would think staying in Detroit and signing a long-term contract will prevent any further humiliation from the fans.

This is why I think the fun will only just begin tomorrow morning. This will be interesting, especially for the Canucks.

It’s a very bad day for Senator fans because Heatley wants out of Ottawa.

His agent J.P. Barry is claiming philosophical differences between Dany and coach Cory Clouston. I guess this is the most common excuse for any players asking for a trade nowadays.

Of course, we will soon hear Eklund and various other bloggers suggesting Heatley ending up in various club next season, and my hope is that he will be in Vancouver. But which team will not want Heatley in their line-up?? A 28-year old player who has never scored fewer than 40 goals in regular seasons, except for this year and 03-04 (the infamous car-accident season). Heatley is by-far the most consistent Senators, putting up consecutive 50-goals and +100-points seasons in 05 and 06 seasons. So, again, which team wouldn’t want Heatley?

However, being arguably the second-best Left-Winger of the league comes with a pretty huge price-tag. At an averaged cap-hit of $7.5-million, Heatley was paid $10-million in the 08-09 season alone. His contract-extension with the Senators from 2007 guarantees him $8-million for the next three years, and then $6-million in year 12/13 and $5-million in year 13/14. This averages out to be $7-million cap-hit and a contract locked down for 5 more seasons.

Despite fans from possible every NHL teams drooling over the thought of Heatley joing their team, most GMs won’t be too happy about such a lengthy and expensive contract, especially with the Salary Cap going down in the coming season.

That being said, since this will require a trade, if the asset going back the other way is of significant value, then Heatley is still a very attractive commodity. As TSN’s Darren Dreger suggested, teams looking to shake up their team chemistry will most likely be the winner of this bid.

Under-performed teams like the Sharks, the Bruins, the Rangers or the Ducks might be very interested. These teams do have desirable valuable assests which might interest Senators GM Brian Murray.

In Boston, with Fernandez going to free agency, the team can trade Patrice Bergeron and a top prospect like Blake Wheeler for Heatley.

The Rangers, dying for a change would love to send Drury the other way for Heatley!!!

Imagine having a Heatley-Getzlaf-Perry line-up in Anaheim!!! But this may require trading a top asset like Pronger the other way, I’m sure Murray would do that in a heartbeat!! Don’t forget they can still sign back Scott Niedermayer or add thru free-agency.

But perhaps the most likely scenario is the Sharks. The President’s Trophy Winner failed miserably in the Playoffs, and they know their time in running out. They need to win now like there’s no tomorrow. With Patrick Marleau having a come-back season in 08-09, scoring 38 goals and 33 assist, this is perhaps the best time to trade him. (Marleau only scored one fewer goals that Heatley this season)

Both players are 28-years old, and San Jose has often lack a natural left-winger to play with Thronton and Cheechoo. With a top finisher in Heatley, the Sharks instantly improve and will become even harder to play against.

The Sens reduce their cap-hit slightly by $0.7-million, and with Heatley openly express his willingness to leave, getting a player like Marleau in return should be considered very lucky.

Why, you might asked haven’t I jumped on the wagon rooting for Gillis to get Heatley. It’s because the Canucks, like the Canadiens have too many players pending free-agency. With so many players’ future uncertain, there is no way the Canucks will trade away any top players with a contract right now. As much as I would love to say Mason Raymond and Alex Edler for Heatley, I don’t think that will happen.

So, let’s just focus on signing Marian Gaborik, there’s only 20 days left before the bidding begins. I wonder if Demitra is showing Gaborik around town like what Naslund did last year.

Yes, this is another article about the Twins.

With the Red Wings dominating the finals, again (yawn…), and the rumors front for the Canucks awfully quite, it seems like everyone is talking about the Twins.

Should we or shouldn’t we? What about Hossa? What about Gaborik? What about Bouwmeester?? But I think the real question is can we really afford NOT signing the twins??

Let’s take a look:

Despite what some people think (Hi Iceman), the Twins are the best forwards for the Canucks, right now. Both Sedins had a great regular season, with Henrik having a career-high in point totals at 82 points. Yes, that’s exactly a point a game total. Daniel also had exactly 82 points this season, scoring five less goals than his career-high but setting a new assist-record at 51 assists.

In the playoffs, the Sedins were much more noticable this season, they were fast, they were physical and they played smart hockey. Again, both Sedins scored 10 points in their 10 games in this year’s playoffs. In fact the twins were identical in terms of goals (4) and assists (6).

When people are saying about replacing the Sedins with top-end UFAs, are there really so many point-per-game UFAs out there that I’m unaware of??

Let’s say Gaborik is 100% healthy for the next few seasons, is he really gonna sign with us?? If he does, at what price?? $8-million?? Some is even suggesting US$10-million, but there’s no guarantee he will sign.

What about Hossa? If the Wings do capture the Cup this year, do you think he will sign back with the Wings at US$7.45-million?? Can Detroit afford it?? I don’t think so. If Hossa doesn’t sign with Detroit, he will most likely sign with the highest bidder, since he’d already achieve his goal. Will Vancouver be willing to sign Hossa at another $10-million??

Of course the answer is no, especially if the Canucks can’t keep the Sedins, Luongo might not consider re-signing with the team, then what’s there left to attract UFAs to sign with us, if there’s no chance for the team to win.

I mean, think about it, throughout the past decade, have the Canucks been able to sign any top-end UFAs, besides Sundin?? The only reason we are able to win that bid is because we were a contender. We had the Sedins, a deep corp of defensemen and Luongo, that’s why Mats chose us.

It’s difficult to see the picture clearly at this moment, simply because there’s this illusion that the Canucks have a decent shot at Hossa or Gaborik or Bouwmeester, and if we can sign these players, maybe we shouldn’t keep the Sedins. However, what are our chances of signing these players, who haven’t expressed any interests with Vancouver? On the other hand, what are our chances of re-signing the twins?? Two players who have their families in Vancouver and have openly said numerous times they want to be here.

If we can afford to sign Hossa or Gaborik at US$10-million, why can’t we spare $14-million for both the Twins? I’m sure if the offer is $7-million per player, they will sign immediately. I mean, either sign them cheaper at $6-million for seven years or US$7-million for three years.

Why do players always seem better when they are with another team? Think about it this way, if there’s a point-per-game UFA LW (top 5 in the league) out there, who’s only 28-yrs old, willing to sign with the Canucks at US$7-million for the next three years, would you want to sign him?

What about a perfect playmaker for this LW at the same price and same term, will you sign him as well? Are you willing to sign two 1st-liner at 7M each for three years if they tell you Vancouver is their first choice?

If so, why won’t you sign the Sedins? At least you know what you are getting. If you sign any other free agents, there’s still a big risk of them not welding with the team or lacking incentives in playing for Vancouver…etc, but with the Twins, you know what you are getting.

And the last point I’m gonna make is even simpler.

After eight seasons of waiting for the Twins to mature, the only two 1st rounders the Canucks ever had from the same draft, just when they are finally maturing into top-end performers, we let them walk for nothing??? Really???!!!

So, don’t be mistaken, when all the dust settles by September, you won’t find any Hossa, Gaborik, Cammalleri or Bouwmeester in the Canucks dressing room. You will only either see the Twins, or you don’t.

I sometimes feel like a prophet. If I said this, no one would believe me, but I was going to write about the possibility of signing the Niedermayer brothers today, even before the news of the BC boys expressing interests in playing for their hometown.

I was watching TSN on the web, and a video about the Staal brothers going against each other brought the memories of how Scott and Rob faced off during the 2003 Stanley Cup Finals. TSN interviewed Scott, and he said that shaking the hands of brother Rob at the end of the game was perhaps the worst feeling one can imagine on the night of such a victory.

Of course what happened next was even more dramatic when Scott, then an Unrestricted Free Agent, decided to join the Ducks with the purpose of winning the cup together with his brother. It didn’t take long before Scott achieved that goal, by winning the first ever Stanley Cup in his second season in Anaheim.

Looking at the incredible resume of Scott, the only active player to have won it all at every levels: a Memorial Cup, Gold Medal at the World Junior Championship, Gold Medal at the World Championship, Gold Medal at the World Cup of Hockey, Gold Medal at the Olympics and four Stanley Cups, one with his Brother by his side, you couldn’t stop wonder, are there any other goals for him near the end of his acclaimed career?

Maybe winning the Cup for his home town?? Bring the Holy Grail of Hockey to Vancouver after 37 years of waiting would make the Niedermayers Hometown Heroes forever.

If this will ever happen, now is perhaps the closest it will ever get. Since both Rob and Scott will become Unrestricted Free Agents by this July, and according to their agent Kevin Epp, the BC Brothers are considering “…very much playing in Canada for the Canucks or Calgary or somewhere near his off-season home and staying out West.”  

Although Scott was actually born in Edmonton, Alberta, he grew up in B.C. and most of his family and friends are in Vancouver. So I think it’s very natural that the brothers would love to play for their hometown.

But does it make sense for the Canucks??

Let’s look at the numbers. Scott was making $6.75-million per season and Rob was making $2-million per season.
If any deal is to come through, Scott will have to take a huge hometown discount, and at 34 (it’s hard to believe he’s only 34!!!), I think $5-million per season is fair.

As for Rob, he averages 20 points per season, and as a third-line LW, the Canucks won’t be very eager to sign him at $2-million. However if he is willing to take a pay-cut to about $1.5-million, with a heightened incentive in playing for his hometown, maybe he can improve his game to another level.

Of course, Scott still has a lot of gas in his tank, assuming he still wants to play, which he does if it’s for his hometown. The Canucks shouldn’t hesitate to sign him, even at $6-million per season. The leadership and experience he brings to the team will be invaluable, and this may prove to be a huge move in re-signing Luongo as well. This is especially the case with Ohlund opting for free agency, and Salo continues to battle with injuries.

However, at the end of the day, Mike Gillis won’t be able to do anything until he signs or gives up signing the Sedins. A positive note is that this news of Scott showing interest in joining the Canucks actually already benefited the team, because with Niedermayer in the line-up, the team has a much better chance of winning the Cup next season, this will draw the interests of other free agents to Vancouver. In doing so, the bargainning power of the Sedins will decrease, since Gillis knows that he can still fill the roster with top players, even if the Sedins don’t return.

It doesn’t take a genius to know that J.S. Giguere’s time in Anaheim is up, ever since rookie goaltender Jonas Hiller took over the start-up job during the playoffs.

Why pay $6-million per season for a back-up goaltender, right?

Well, how about Jose Theodore?? Varlamov’s excellent play has surely deemed Theodore expendable, where’s Theodore going, Eklund?

So it’s suffice to say that our friends at hockeybuzz.com isn’t being too creative in starting their early off-season rumors. But the problem with saying Philly or Toronto are front-runners for Giguere this time of the year makes this rumor highly improbable. The playoff is not even over, and most teams out of the playoff are thinking about their cap-space for re-signing their free agents, I don’t think a lot of GMs are drooling over Giguere’s $6-million contact. So I wonder who these “interesting sources” are? Burt the dog??

Let’s first take a look at the Flyers, Martin Biron’s contact is up this summer, and he plays like he’s continually improving. At a price of $3.5-million per season, they are getting their money’s worth. It’s likely that Biron will be extended to another similar contract. Honestly, with heavy and lengthy contacts to Briere, $6.5-million per season until 2015, Timonen, $6.33-million per season until 2013, and Richards, $5.75-million per season until 2019, it’s not like Philadelphia has a lot of cap-space to pick up another $6-million hit.

Most importantly, the only reason why they will drop Biron and sign Giguere is if they believe goaltending is their most imminent area of improvement. However, the reason for their failure in this year’s playoff lies more on lack-of-offense than their goaltending. Especially with a shut-out performance in game 2 by Biron, should the Flyers spend their cap on improving goaltending? This is of course assuming Giguere is a much better goaltender than Biron, $2.5-million better.

As for the Leafs, everyone knows that Burke is focusing on rebuilding the team from the bottom up, it doesn’t make sense for Toronto to add a $6-million goalie with a two-year contract this early on in their rebuilding, unless he is selling cap-space again!!! If I know Brian Burke at all, he will probably let Toskala ride out the remaining of his contract, meanwhile studying his performance to see if Vesa is the right person for their future.

But let’s for a minute, say that both the Flyers and the Leafs are looking for a goaltender, why not sign Manny Fernandez? The Bruins backup goaltender was previously paid $4.75-million per season, and at 34, he will probably take a slight pay-cut if he wishes to continue playing in the NHL.

Anyways, this is typical Eklund, he will make up any rumors just to start people talking about him, and I guess he succeeded by luring this blogger into writing this post.

Apparently http://www.hockeyleaks.com is suggesting that there’s a rumor for a deal to land Bouwmeester in Vancouver for the price of Grabner, Ohlund and a 1st.

I’d just like to say that this deal doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, at least not for Vancouver. Some argue that Florida won’t like this deal because they are giving away their star UFA for another UFA defenseman. But the thing is, it acutally make sense for the Panthers because they need a good D-man for their fight to get into the playoffs, and Ohlund can provide part of what they miss in J.Bo. Even if Ohlund doesn’t sign with them next season, they’d still have Grabner – a great prospect, and a 1st rounder. No bad for an impending UFA, even if he is one of the best young D-man out there. At least I haven’t heard rumors from other teams resembling anything close to this.

But it doesn’t make any sense for the Canucks at all, simply because there’s no way of knowing if J.Bo will sign back. If Gillis wanted assurance for heading into the playoffs, J.Bo instead of Ohlund isn’t that big of an improvement, as Ohlund gives an extra element of leadership and confidence within the Canucks locker room. And to give up Grabner and another 1st for this is ridiculous. Gillis will be hanged for doing this trade. If the 1st-rounder is conditional, depending on whether J.Bo signs back, then at least it makes some sense.

It’s being heavily reported across the web that Mattias Ohlund will probably test the open market when his contract expires this summer. Report from team1040 radio says that negotiation between Ohlund’s party and the Canucks organization have broken down, and Ohlund is now seriously thinking about leaving the only NHL team he’s played for during his 11-years career.

To many fans, Ohlund is perhaps the best defenseman for the Canucks, but how good is he, and what return can he get if he tests the market during 09′s free agent season? A number of factors play into the offers being made to any UFA during any off-season. Of course the player’s statistics, character and age affects his value, but the number of other available UFA defensemen during a particular year will have a great effect as well.

So first, let’s take a look at Ohlund’s numbers:

2008-09 season (60 GP) – 4G, 15A, 19Pts
2007-08 season (53 GP) – 9G, 15A, 24Pts
2006-07 season (77 GP) – 11G, 20A, 31Pts

Looking at this year alone, Ohlund ranks 69th amongst defenseman, and has the similar point production as Ruslan Salei, Jordan Leopold or Zbynek Michalek. Not exactly top-rank in terms of statistics, but Ohlund’s value has never been about his ability to score goals or put up great assists. But in terms of +/-, Ohlund current ranks 108th amongst D-man, at +1. So, when teams are talking about Ohlund being a perfect choice as that puck-moving defenseman, this is not the case, at least not statistically. In terms of age, Ohlund is 31, just at the peak of his prime, which is also the same age as most of the highest paid defenseman in the league, ie. Chara, Boyle, Redden, Visnovsky, Souray(avg salary of 6.34-million). In terms of cap-number wise, Ohlund is 48th amongst all Defenseman at 3.5-million.

So he’s not very good number-wise, but at his prime, he’s making much less than the other top-tier defensemen of the same age. Of course, the determining factor when estimating his value is whether Ohlund belongs in the same group as these top-tier players. Let’s take a look:

Zdeno Chara   61GP -   14G   21A   35P   +25   (7.5-million)
Dan Boyle   54GP -   14G   30A   44P   +14   (6.67-million)
Wade Redden   62GP -   3G   18A   21P   -11 (6.5-million)
Lubomir Visnovsky   50GP -   8G   23A   31P   +6 (5.6-million)
Sheldon Souray   60GP -   17G   23A   40P   -5 (5.4-million)

With the exception of Redden, who’s having an off-year, Ohlund’s numbers are nowhere near the top. So on paper, Ohlund’s value shouldn’t be more that what Visnovsky or Souray is making. If we look at another 31-yr old top-tier D-man, Pavel Kubina, who’s making 5-million, his numbers are better than Ohlund’s as well:

Pavel Kubina   62GP -   10G   24A   34P   -8 (5-million)

Most GM, Burke included, would agree that Kubina is a great deal at 5-million dollars. So, for argument’s sake, let’s say that Ohlund’s other elements of play compensates his lack of point production, that he has more value than Kubina. Then his value will probably be in the range of 5-million to 5.6-million.

What about competition? Who else is available during the off-season, in terms of UFA?

There are a total of 11 UFA defensemen this summer who makes more than 3-million in terms of salary. We use this as a simplified factor for finding players with similiar market value as Ohlund. Of the 11, six of these UFAs are 35-yrs old or younger, and they are:

Scott Niedermayer (35) – 6.75-million
Jaroslav Spacek (35) – 3.33-million
Adrian Aucoin (35) – 4.0-million
Jay Bouwmeester (25) – 4.87-million
Filip Kuba (32) – 3.0-million
Derek Morris (30) – 3.917-million

Aside from Niedermayer, who may soon contemplate retirement, the other five are direct competitors with Ohlund in terms of being offered a heavy contract. Spacek or Aucoin, due to their age, will likely receive similar package as they did, close to 3.5-million per year. This leaves us with Bouwmeester, Kuba and Morris.

With the shrinking global economy, the Cap is likely to be reduced for next year, and not many teams with a decent shot at the cup will have enough cap-space to offer inflated contracts to free agents. Furthermore, the CBA will expire by the end of next season, so teams are reluctant in offering long term contracts as well. With these in mind, and the other three alternatives out there, what will the offer be for Ohlund???

I honestly think that Ohlund will probably be looking at offers for 5-million per season for 2 years, and although his numbers doesn’t support this, I think he’s worth every penny of it. Unfortunately, if the Canucks want to sign the Sedins to an extension, they will probably not be able to afford another 5-million for Ohlund. However, as I just explained, there are a number of good UFA defenseman coming up, so there’s really no need to break our bank to keep Ohlund here.

Sometimes as fans, we hate the idea of losing a valuable player to free agency. But what goes around comes around, we can also sign good free-agents if it makes sense to our cap-room.

P.S. This is also the reason why I don’t believe Gillis will trade Ohlund before the deadline this year, he doesn’t really mind him walking. Come next season, it will all be about cap-space, and those teams which offer inflated salary to attract players will suffer at the end.

The trading deadline is one week away, and the Canucks have the same record as they did last year at the 60-game mark.

30 W 22 L 8 OTL – 68 Pts.

Last year, nothing much happened, except for the Cooke for Pettinger deal. Then the team went into a free-fall with 9 wins in the remaining 22 games. The rest was history.

So Gillis must ensure the same thing won’t happen again, or at least put up an attempt, because if the team repeats itself, and fail to make the playoffs, Gillis wouldn’t be compared to Nonis in terms of incompetance.

Under this mindset, I thought I should look at what can be done to improve our line up, although I did mention in my earlier post that the roster and line up looks decent for a shot at post-season. We must still keep in mind that we are not that deep in terms of reserves, if a top-line forward or a defenseman gets hurt, we could be in trouble. (We are somewhat better in Goal, with Labarbera, Sanford and Schneider.)

But where do we add? Especially with our top two-lines performing (well, the Canadiens game not including), do we add a third-line player? Let’s just, for fun sake, we decide to move Burrows down to the third line for now.

So we can be looking for a top-2-line forward, and possibly a defenseman reserve.

Islanders
Michel Ouellet
conditional 3rd rounder 2009 if Canucks makes 2nd round playoff

Canucks
Bill Guerin

A swap of UFA-RW between two teams. Canucks get a 20-goal scoring right-wing veteran who can play with Sedins or third line with Wellwood and Raymond/Bernier. Islanders dumps salary and gets Ouellet, who is likely to re-sign with the team, since there are more roster room with the Islanders.

But, a better deal which is less-likely to happen is:

Avalanche
Milan Hejduk

Canucks
Mason Raymond
Corey Schneider
Conditional 2nd round pick 2009 if Canucks makes playoff

Canucks get a genuine top-2 line right winger with one more year in his contract, who can easily fit with the Sedins or even the RPM line if someone gets hurt. Avalanche gets a speedy young winger in Raymond, who is cheap and can excel with more ice-time and confidence. Schneider will be a great backup and future goalie for Colorado, since both their startup and backup goalies’ contracts expire this summer. If they pick up another verteran G via free agency, the team is set. Only add the 2nd rounder if Colorado doesn’t bite.

What about defenseman?

Thrashers
Taylor Pyatt
3rd rounder 2009

Canucks
Niclas Havelid

Another UFA swap. Atlanta doens’t have a lot to lose as Havelid, a solid defensive D-man, will likely walk and try the open market comes July. In return they get Pyatt, who has excellent on-ice ethics, and is very decent at price tag of 1.5-million. Atlanta can see this as a salary dump, and choose to sign back Pyatt if he plays well the remaining of this season. Atlanta will want as much picks as possible entering the draft, so the 3rd rounder is actually the attraction in this deal. Canucks get a rental in Havelid, but will instantly solidify any concerns defensively. Put O’Brien on reserve and play Havelid for the remaining 22 games.

I seriously think the Gillis will do something before the deadline, and it wouldn’t be small either. We’ll see.