PUCK ALERT – by Saint Pako

The trading deadline for 2010 is now history, and although we saw a record-breaking 31 trades involving a massive 55 players and 25 draft picks, most of the trades involved depth and role players.

We didn’t see the Hossa, Jokinen, Richards types of deals as we saw in the past, an expected result of the maturation of the cap-restricted era. Most teams simply aren’t able to pull off any big trades with overpaid salaries and long contracts in their better or not-so-better players.

So it wasn’t surprising so see Mike Gillis making only three minor trades this season.

Coming into this year’s deadline, as I wrote in my previous posts, the Canucks was in an odd situation. They didn’t have any significant needs in terms of upgrade. This is relative, of course, but if you look at the Bruins or the Flames, Boston clearly needs some kind of offense upgrade with the loss of Kessel to Toronto. The Flames hanging on to a chance for a playoff berth needs to improve their defense with the departure of Phaneuf.

On the contrary, the Canucks loaded up on defense during the off-seasons, to an extent where the team can split into two complete preseason-squad. With the likes of Bieska, Mitchell, Salo, Edler, O’Brien, Ehrhoff, Rome, Schneider, Lukowich and Baumgartner, who’d ever thought the team will need to further add defensemen?

However as the season progressed, injuries as well as other factors set in. The remarks or attitudes of Matthieu Schneider, and the constant injuries to the top 3 regular defensemen greatly affected the team. With Baumgartner called up to fill in the holes left open by Bieska and Mitchell, Gillis is again forced to deal for a D-man.

Before the deadline, Gillis had hinted that he’d like to acquire a third-line forward, perhaps a centerman with a better physical presence or scoring abilities. Coach Vigneault seems to be happy with his top two lines as well as the grit of his fourth-line.

There aren’t a lot of top-rank players on the trading block this season. The most sought after forwards were probably Wolski, Ponikarovsky, Modin, Whitney and Stempniac??!! But with only about 500K to spare in cap space, and the depleted defensive corp, the Canucks will have to trade one of their roster players to make that happen. A risk Gillis probably isn’t going to make.

The good news is, part of that wish was granted after the Olympics, as the return of Pavol Demitra and his spectacular play for Team Slovak provides just that depth in the forward lines. Demitra’s reunion with Kesler to form the new RPM line along with new “M” Mason Raymond proved success in the recent games.

Samuelsson got bumped to the third line (a potential problem in the making), but the sudden resurgence of Kyle Wellwood could prove great production if the team can stay out of the box so the third line can get enough ice-time.

So at the end of the day (or the beginning of the day…) Gillis is left with JUST getting a defenseman. But who isn’t?

Anyways, let’s take a look at the other two trades first.

Sean Zimmerman + conditional 6th round pick for Matthieu Schneider. ZimmerWho??!!

Yes, if you try to wiki Sean, he’s probably one of the few players you don’t get any results on. All I know is that he’s a 6th round pick in 2005 by the Devils. So if we add the conditional 6th round pick, it’s probably like two Zimmermen for a Schneider.

Great deal~ Since we won’t be using Schneider for the remainder of the season, and his contract expires in the summer, two Zimmermen are better than a bag of hockey pucks.

Yan Stastny, on the other hand is famous. Not so much for his own accomplishments – yet, he’s the brother of Avalanche start center Paul Stastny and son of Hall-of-famer Peter Stastny.

Yan was drafted 259th overall in 2002, a centerman who split his time between the NHL and AHL throughout the past eight years. Yan has never spent an entire season with any NHL club, including his stops at Oilers, Bruins and Blues.

Yan is Manitoba-bound, plain and simple.

This leaves us with the Andrew Alberts trade.

Andrew Alberts, drafted in the sixth round in 2001, is a giant on the blue-line. At 6’5 weighing 230 pounds, Alberts has very limited offensive upside, instead he is a hard-hitting stay-at-home defenseman. In fact, Alberts had never scored more than one goal per season in five of his NHL years (Bruins, Flyers, Hurricanes), except this season, which he now has two.

However, the Canucks have plenty of offensive defenseman, a physical and reliable D-man may be just what they need for success in the post-seasons, especially with Mitchell’s status unclear.

But just how reliable is Alberts? If the +/- rating means anything, which I believe it does somewhat, Alberts in a very weak Carolina team was still able to get a team-high +7 rating as oppose to the teams -27. So hopefully, he can provide that confidence factor in the back-end for his new teammates.

I mean, after all, a 3rd-rounder in a mediocre draft year for a proven 28-year-old NHL-er with one more year contract at $1-million sounds very reasonable.

Finally, after years of speculation, reported here as early as July 2008, the second-best Russian winger is off the market…for at least three more months.

Official reports, confirmed by TSN here that Thrashers Kovalchuk along with defenseman Anssi Salmela have been traded to the New Jersey Devils for John Oduya, Niclas Bergfors, Patrice Cormier and a 2010 1st-rounder.

On the surface, this deal is pretty similar to a deal that landed Marian Hossa in Pittsburgh two seasons ago for the same reason of impending UFA status.

Here are the stats for the players involved:

Compared to the Hossa trade in 08, which shipped Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis to Pittsburgh for Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito and 1st Rounder, this trade is less rewarding for the Thrasher, if you consider the value of Kovalchuk versus Hossa to the franchise.

The key pieces here for Atlanta is Oduya, a 2010 Swedish Olympian who has matured into a top-4 puck-moving defenseman with unreliable scoring upside. In 40 games this season, however, he’s only managed to find the net twice in 40 games, hardly a comparison to Colby Armstrong during Hossa’s trade.

The other key piece is Niclas Bergfors, a first-rounder in 2005, who was in and out of the main club since drafted by New Jersey. This is his first full season with the club, and is playing some decent hockey as a 2nd-line right-winger, along-side linemates Zubrus and Rolston. In 54 games he’s played, he notched 13 goals and 14 assists; nothing to get too excited about, but he’s still only 22, and this production is achieved under a defensive-style of hockey in New Jersey.

Salmela and Cormier are unproven spare-parts at this moment.

As for the 1st-rounder, the Devils rank fifth in the entire league right now, so less a monumental meltdown, this will only be a late first-round pick in a mediocre draft-year.

(Side note: It’s been mentioned that the team also swapped 2nd rounder in the 2010 draft, which of course goes favor to NJ)

This doesn’t sound like an attractive deal to me, but considering all the rumors lately, this seems like the best deal by some margin, since Atlanta GM Don Waddell was pretty quick to pull the trigger after announcing failure to re-sign his star player. It goes to show the market value for an unsigned elite player in today’s NHL.

The next question for Devils fans is of course, whether the team has any chance of re-signing Ilya in the off-season. Nothing is certain at this moment, but on paper, the Devils picked up an extra $2.7M in salary from this trade. The team is very close to the cap with less than $2-million cap space right now. Although there will be ten UFA be the end of this season, none of them have salary higher than $1-million each.

Right now, in NHL, the maximum salary a team can offer any player is 20% of the teams’ payroll. If the Devils is willing to do that, which they have to, according to expectations coming from Kovalchuk’s camp, they will have to offer $11-million to retain Kovalchuk’s service. This will be very difficult to do, since the team will be at least $2-million short in cap-space.

There are ways to maneuver around this, just like what Chicago did with Hossa, New York with Gaborik or Vancouver with Luongo. New Jersey will probably have to offer a 15-year contract and sign Ilya until he’s 42 to spread the salary cap to about $7-million per season. This will of course tied New Jersey down for many many years to come.

Lou Lamoriello might not want to do this, since home-grown super-talent Zach Parise’s contract will be up after next season. At $3.13M per season, Parise is bound to get a huge raise, this must be something the crafty New Jersey GM is constantly thinking about.

Of course, the last question is, why do they need Kovalchuk??

The Devils now sit 2nd in the East with 72Pts, top of the Atlantic division. The team’s top left-winger Parise has just one fewer points than Kovalchuk. How will Jacques Lemaire fit Kovalchuk into his line-up. Unless one of Parise or Kovalchuk switches to play right-wing, one of them will have to play a 2nd line role, so who should that be??

Could this simply be a move for the post-season? Fitting the definition of a “rental” player? This blogger thinks likely, especially if you consider the price they paid for Ilya’s service. After all, Kovalchuk’s game doesn’t exactly fit with Lemaire’s style of hockey. Since he is finally calling the shots, after eight years of service in Atlanta, does Lamoriello honestly believe he will sign back??

Anyways, as cliche as this might sound, with this Kovalchuk trade, the flood-gate is now open, I surely expect more domino effects from this before the Olympics.

Signing out.

Wow~ It’s like the old NHL is back, almost.

Finally something I can write about. Yesterday, in perhaps the biggest trade since the cap-era, in terms of star-power and number of players, the Calgary Flames shipped Superstar Defenseman Dion Phaneuf to Toronto.

The breakdown to the trade is as following:

Calgary Flames

Toronto Maple Leafs

If the value of Sjostrom is similar to that of Jamal Mayers, then the Leafs are getting Dion Phaneuf and a prospect D for Hagman, Stajan and White.

Although the Maple Leafs and the Flames are both experiencing scoring drought and both are playing some terrible hockey, they are in a very different position.

The Leafs are pretty much done for the season. Last place in the East – 45 points with 26 games left, they are the second-worst team in the entire NHL. There would’ve been great hope in landing top prospect Taylor Hall in the upcoming draft, but Toronto traded their pick away to Boston in a deal for Phil Kessel. All hopes are loss, except to save from some humiliation if they can at least climb out of the bottom five, so the fans and media can’t complain about sending Hall to Boston.

The Flames, on the other hand, are still very much in the midst of making the playoffs. If it wasn’t for the recent eight-game losing streak, the Flames might still be ahead in the NW division. A win over the Oilers a couple nights ago may be a turning point, but in any case they will probably make the playoffs, like they always do.However, the goals for the Sutter brothers and the management are much higher than making it to the prom. They want to win it all.

With this in mind, both teams are eager to do something, if they still want a job before the Olympic break. Darryl can’t fire his brother Brent the head coach, after half a season, and Burke can’t fire his fellow US Olympic head-coach Ron Wilson before the Games. So what do you do if you can’t blame the coach?? Make a trade, and a huge one, so the attention is diverted elsewhere.

That’s exactly what happened. If the Flames haven’t lost that eight straight games, no one would’ve thought that Phaneuf is trade-able. The same can be said for Brian Burke for shipping out two of his top four point-getters AND his second best point-producing defenseman for a $6.5M D-man who produced four less points than the one his shipped out.

But of course, that D-man is Dion Phaneuf, and Burke is afterall….Burke, he can do whatever he wants, right?

Don’t get me wrong, I think this is a great trade for Toronto. Not so much for the Flames, from where I am looking. Toronto gets a young, physical, and highly gifted superstar in Phaneuf for a couple of second-ranked forward and a mediocre defenseman. Brian Burke is looking into the future, and he doesn’t care that his team is now 80 points fewer in point-production after the trade, the season is over anyways~

For the Flames, I think they made a mistake. I mean Hagman, Stajan and White are decent players, but their point production is exaggerated in a poorly-talented Toronto team. If the Flames are having scoring problems, shouldn’t they look elsewhere than the 2nd-worst team in the league for help?

I mean if Sutter tells every GM that Phaneuf is for sale, I am pretty sure he can get a lot more than Hagman, Stajan and White. If Sutter is willing to package Jokinen with Phaneuf, maybe he can even get Kovalchuk???!!! (Of course, he will need to get Kovie signed, I know, but you get my point.)

According to Burke’s interview, the offer initially wasn’t there, but as time went on, I guess the 8-game losing streak played a huge factor, the offer that wasn’t available suddenly was. I guess this is where Burke is so successful in making deals, he always seems to be able to dig out deals that aren’t there. Making bold offers that other GM might feel humiliated to even ask.

At the end of the day, it never hurt to give it a try, and today Burke was successful in stealing perhaps the best physical defenseman in the game.

Another great deal done by Burke today was the Giguere for Toskala and Blake trade. Everyone knows that Giguere isn’t happy about his shared role in Anaheim, but to be able to land him in T.O. for a 3.66 GAA goaltender and a 35-yr old overpaid player with 2 more season of $3M hit is just brilliant.

What is Bob Murray thinking?? In trying to get rid of his $6M goalie contract, he actually coughed up an extra $2M for a total of $8M cap-hit for a $4M 26-pts 36-yr Left Winger and another $4M goalie with a 3.66 GAA???!!!

Are the ducks any better today, with a $2M extra cap hit?? Nope.

What is it with Burke??? Why do other GMs suddenly become stupid when they deal with him. I mean the Sutter deal I can kind of understand, but the Murray deal is just beyond comprehension.

And Burke says he isn’t done. Maybe, Burke doesn’t need that 1st round pick afterall. Other GMs build their team through drafts, but Burke does it by stealing them.

Fresh from the oven, another Frolov rumors from Eklund.

Well, I guess this time, it makes more sense. Back in August, I reported a false rumor regarding Frolov for Demitra, O’Brien and a 3rd. Although that rumor did not materialize, the need to sign or trade Frolov is ever more imminent.

The Kings, under Head Coach Terry Murray, was having one of their best starts in recent history. The team, at one point in this season, led the entire Western Conference, something they haven’t done in many seasons. The spectacular play of their young goaltender Jonathan Quick, sophomore sensation Drew Doughty  and instant chemistry of newly-acquired Ryan Smyth with Kopitar and Williams made the L.A. Kings one of the most feared teams in the entire league.

The top-line played reliable and responsible two-way hockey, amassing both point-production and excellent +/- stats. However, this only last less than a month, when Justin Williams suffered a lower-body injury and missed five-games. Williams returned to action on Nov 2nd, and the trio played another eight games together, putting up 23 points in eights games amongst the three forwards.

Then on Nov 16, Smyth went down with an upper-body injury, and will miss the next 15 games!!! During which Kopitar and Williams combined only for 16 points in 15 games. In fact, Kopitar only had two goals and 6 assists for 8 points in the 15 outings without Smyth on his wing. A sharp contrast from the 31 points in 22 games playing along-side Smyth.

During this 15-games stretch, Murray gave Frolov a great opportunity to redeem himself, be it for contract-negotiation or open-market value. However, Frolov was only able to produce 8 points playing mostly on the top-line night-in and night-out during Smyth’s absence. This is perhaps the last chance Murray and Lombardi had for Frolov.

With Smyth back, and the team still able to win games without their big star, there wouldn’t have been any urgency to trade Frolov. But luck would have it that, four minutes into the reunion of the top line, Justin Williams suffered a broken leg after a check by Coyotes Ed Jovanovski. Williams had surgery this Monday, and the recovery time is expected to be 11 long weeks!!!

So what now???!! The Kings have lost three in a row, their top right-winger is out of the line-up for three months, and their top scorer Kopitar having only scored twice in the last TWENTY ONE games. The Kings now sit seventh in the West with 47 points, tied-up with both Calgary and Vancouver. With 43 games left, the Kings are only 8 points shy from the top spot, but leads Dallas, Detroit and Minnesota by either 4 points or less.

With just some 60 days away from the trading deadline, this is perhaps the best time to trade Frolov. With just 24 points in 38 games, on pace to his worst production ever since 2003, I seriously doubt the Kings will offer anything close to his previous contract of an avearge $3M per season. In fact, Frolov’s salary for this season is US$4-million.

But even if the Kings are willing to extend Frolov’s contract as it was, I would think Frolov would only consider the offer if the Kings are able to make the playoffs this season. If, after an amazing start to the season, the Kings still fail to make the playoffs or exit in the first round, Frolov at 27, will likely try the open market, and I am certain that many teams will be willing to offer him a big contract.

Of course, the dilemma GM Dean Lombardi has is this, Frolov being an under-performing imminent UFA, won’t be worth a lot in terms of trade value. The Kings now, still very much in the midst of a playoff run can’t afford to trade Frolov for future prospects. But if Lombardi doesn’t trade Frolov before the deadline, he may lose him for nothing.

The longer Lombardi waits, the lesser value Frolov will have, because with more games played, teams out of the playoff picture will start selling their players. With increase in supply and demand remains the same, the price/value will drop.

So I think that Lombardi is probably very busy on the phones right now. The deal will probably not just involve Frolov, but perhaps another young prospects or two. In return, the Kings will probably get a top-six winger.

(more…)

“Sometimes the best deal you make is the one you didn’t make!”

If I can get a dollar everytime I hear this for the next few days! So yes, the deadline frenzy is over, and just like his predecessor, Gillis didn’t do a whole lot during the deadline, well…in fact he did absolutely NOTHING, well at least in terms of trades.

But I think the consensus around Vancouver is that Gillis did a good job by sticking with the current core. With 11 wins in the last 13 games, the Canucks are arguably the hottest team in the league right now. Burrows & Sedins, as well as the RPM line proves wonder on the score sheet; meanwhile the addition of Ossi Vaananen will surely provide depth to an already solid defensive corp. Luongo is still 90%, but should pick up his game once playoff starts.

Having said that, most agree that the third-line seems to fail in providing a good shut-down role, and this is where Canucks fans hope Gillis will be able to fine-tune before the deadline. Yet, this year most teams are very conservative in their actions, and the asking price for players seem to be high. Gillis mentioned in an interview that he enquired Jacques Martin about the asking price for Jay Bouwmeester, but the conversation was a very short one, contrary to TSN’s report about the Canucks being in the front-running for the highly-sought defenseman.

Since we are talking about TSN, I have to say I totally disagree with their evaluation of the Canucks failing their fans in their inability to strike a deal. Honestly, I don’t think there’s a lot of options to start with for Gillis, since he’s looking for a third-line shutdown forward. Players like Moen, Moore, Antropov or even Guerin will cost you at least a 2nd round pick, or maybe another roster player. But are they really that much of an improvement over Pyatt, Bernier, Raymond or Wellwood? If not, why trade away your future for uncertain rental players.

Pratt and Taylor of Team1040 made a good point this afternoon about Nonis trading away our 2nd rounders in previous trade deadlines for returns like Noronen, Carney, Sopel and Smolinski. Those players didn’t contribute a lot and most of them left right after the season ended as UFA, so these picks we gave away were for nothing.

For example, let’s take a look at the 2006 trade deadline:

Nonis traded away our 2006 2nd round pick to the Sabres for Finnish goaltender Mika Noronen. In his first game with the Canucks, he allowed 5 goals for a 5-0 loss to the Predators. Five months later, he decided to leave NHL for the Russian Super Hockey League and never returned. There goes our 2nd rounder.

This 2nd rounder turned out to be a 46th overall pick for the 2006 draft. (This is the year Vancouver drafted Michael Grabner 14th overall.) If we have kept that pick, we would’ve been able to pick up players likes Milan Lucic (50th) or Steve Mason (69th). Of course, hindsight is 20/20, one can argue that we can go on and on about superstar players the Canucks missed to draft, and we all know that Entry Drafts are more like educated guessing game.

But if you think about it, at the 46th pick, Lucic is the best player available coming out of our own back yard, the Vancouver Giants. Lucic was born and raised in Vancouver, played his junior years in the BCHL with the Burnaby Express. In 2005-06, he helped the Gaints to a WHL title making him a fan favorite. It’s highly likely that Nonis would’ve drafted him instead of Goaltender Jhonas Enroth, the eventual 46th overall pick that year.

TRADE DEADLINE

Onto the acutal trades made today. I find it funny that so many commentators praised the Flames for their success in this trade deadline, claiming them the “Winner” of 2009. But what have they won today?? Are they really that much better now with Olli Jokinen?? Maybe it’s the lack of blockbuster deal this year which made the Jokinen trade such a big deal. I mean, I hear people complaing about his character problems, lack of leadership, soft playing style and overpaid salary all year-long. Suddenly he became the prized possession of the entire hockey league??!! Am I now to believe his arrival to Calgary will significantly improve the chance of the Flames winning he CUP?? Come on Pierre McGuire??!!! Are you serious or just bored??

CALGARY FLAMES

I seriously don’t think the Flames are the winner, I mean they get Jokinen – unproven in playoff situations and unstable during regular season, and Jordan Leopold a marginal 4th defenseman, but they have to give up their 1st round pick, their 2nd round pick, speedy center Matthew Lombardi, prospect Brandon Prust, Ryan Wilson, Lawrence Nycolat (well, he’s a freebie, just picked up off waiver)!!! Leopold is a rental who will become an UFA this summer, but Lombardi still has another year to his contract. So please, someone explain to me, how trading away your future in a 1st and a 2nd rounder, a cheap speedy 20-goal scorer, a 2nd-rounder prospect player, 2 bottom-six defender for an over-paid fluctuating center and a rental d-man makes a winning trade??

If the Flames make it this year, maybe it’s still worth-while, but if they don’t, they will have a huge problem going forward with 10 UFAs and 4 RFAs entering this summer, and a depleted prospect pool. Good luck~ Sutter.

PHOENIX COYOTES

The Coyotes on the other hand made some great moves, they got Prucha, Dawes, Upshall, Lombardi, Prust, a 1st rounder, a 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder. With their young rosters, a lot of cap-space and all these picks, they will have very good bargaining power come free-agency season. I think Phoenix definitely made their club stronger today.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Other interesting notes are the Maple Leafs, what’s going on with Burke??? I understand the picks and the d-man (well, at least Rogers, I don’t know why he picked up Heward). What’s with the Goalies man?? Toskala is playing well of-late, but he decides to put him on IR, they still have CuJo and Pogge, but instead Burke go and picked up Martin Gerber off waiver, and then Olaf Kolzig from Tampa????!!! Is he trying to collect over-the-hill and under-perform goaltenders?? [Updated. My bad~ Apparently, the Leafs are helping the Lightning with their salary for UFA Kolzig and Heward. In return the Leafs get a 4th round pick. So the first "Cap Rental" deal I've seen so far.] It’s quite obvious that Burke is trying to eliminate any chance of the team winning any more of the remaining games. Since they’ve gotten points in the last seven games, with a 4-game winning streak during the stretch, the Leafs are quickly becoming the thing Burke hates the most – MEDIOCRITY. They need to lose, and lose quickly, if they want to chase the Islanders for that top pick in John Tavares. But wow, what an embarassment to the sport in Toronto, when you see the players trying so hard every night showing their sportsmanship, meanwhile their GM is trying every means to prevent the team from winning!!

CAROLINA HURRICANES

The last trade I want to talk about tonight is the multi-team deal (I will omit the picks, it’s already complicated as it is) which sent Patick O’Sullivan to Edmonton, Eric Cole back to Carolina and Justin Williams to Los Angeles. It’s a sensible deal for the Oilers and for the Kings, but it seems like Carolina is on the short-end of this deal. Not to undermine the value of Eric Cole and his tremedous career, but why would they give up O’Sullivan - an excellent young player who grew up in Winston-Salem, North Carolina? O’Sullivan (24 yrs-old) is relatively cheap, with a price tag of 2.4-million for the next two years. Patty has 14 goals, 23 assists in 62 games, with a +1 rating; pretty decent numbers! On the other hand, Erik Cole (30 yrs-old) makes 4-million a season, who is headed UFA status by the end of the season, only has 16 goals, 11 assists, with a -3 rating. One can only argue that Cole a left-winger played with Eric Staal during the last Stanley-Cup run, and has good chemistry with the Hurricanes’ captain, whereas O’Sullivan is a natural centerman.

So I searched the internet for answer, and found that O’Sullivan is reluctant to play in their home town because of his father. According to this report, Patrick’s father John is a very violent character who abuses his wife and his son every since Patrick was an infant. In fact, throughout Patrick’s career, John has been known to threaten and intimidate him to the point of coming to his hockey games screaming and swearing at everyone. In fact, some suggests that the reason why O’Sullivan was dropped to a second-round pick during his entry draft is because of this potential off-ice distraction. Patrick eventually filed a Restraining Order against his father towards his family.

I just find it interesting because we often see hockey players as assets of a team, an object of value during days like the Trade Deadline. It’s easy to forget that they are people as well, and they have similar problems as all of us, and sometimes these personal issues, which are not shown on score sheets or statistics charts, affect heavily on their decisions as a player.