With less than 24 hours to go until July 1st, people are expecting a lot of big deals to happen immediately, but I am thinking otherwise.
Just like this year’s Trading Deadline as well as the Entry Draft, there won’t be a lot of deals like in the past. First, the Capology mindset has finally settled with most teams, as GMs are more concern about balancing their budget for next season. But most importantly, with the latest CBA agreement to expire the end of next season, and an expected drop in team caps in the future, most GMs aren’t too enthusiastic about locking up long term huge contracts.
So for fans who loved big trades during the beginning of Free Agency season like yours truly, don’t hold our breath yet, It might take much longer this year.
Of course, I still expect some big signings announced in the next couple of hours as teams will desperately try to re-sign their UFAs. One of those teams is the Canucks.
It’s almost noon time now in Sweden, so I think Gillis is probably in a meeting with the Sedins and their agent J.P. Barry. I don’t think the Sedins will get the 12-year $63-million offer, and I think neither do they. But I do think that if Gillis wants even a shot at signing the Twins, the terms will probably be around 6 to 8 years. If the Canucks can manage to convince the Twins to sign without a No-Trade-Clause, 8 years at an average of $6-million per season should be very attractive for the Sedins.
It will most likely be heavy up-front, dropping to around $4.5-million in the last 3 years of the contract. Honestly, the Sedins are still very young, and if it doesn’t work out in the next two or three years, they are still very marketable commodity in terms of trade value. So why not sign them longer. Having said that, if I am Gillis, I might as well pay them higher now for another year to buy some time to re-negotiate.
As for Luongo, I personally believe that he’s a done deal. It’s just about when Gillis want to announce his signing. If the Canucks can’t sign the Sedins in time before July 1st, Gillis will want to keep fans content with such an announcement.
There is plenty of options for Plan B at this moment. Gaborik and Cammalleri are excellent choices to fill the gaps, but both combined might be higher than what the Sedins are asking for. You always overpay with free agents, this is a fact. With teams trying to fight for “free” goods, they tend to pay higher than what the players are really worth. So if you think about it, it actually makes more sense to sign your own pending-UFAs if they are quite happy with their team. You rarely hear teams getting screwed for re-signing their UFA’s.
So what about Gaborik, am I excited about him possibly signing with the team? Well, if you asked me this question a year ago, I would have xxxx my pants just thinking of my favorite player signing with my favorite team. But if you ask me today, I would probably think we will overpay him, since this will only happen if the Sedins don’t re-sign, and Gaborik will demand a huge salary knowing how the Canucks desperately need him and especially because this is his first Free Agency season.
As for other rumors of Bouwmeester, Niedermayer or Hossa signing, they are just plain stupid. Bouwmeester has probably informed the Panthers of his interest before the team offer his rights to the Flames. Jay is from Alberta, with a solid offer from Sutter, a strong defense corp support in Phaneuf, Aucoin and Regehr, and the chance to play for the Stanley Cup, why wouldn’t he sign?
Niedermayer is also a done deal with the Ducks, why else would they trade Pronger during the Draft if they aren’t somewhat certain of Scott’s return. Yes, he only said he will return to play next season and didn’t specify where, but he’s too classy a player to screw his former team that way. Plus, the Canucks won’t sign both Scott and Rob, if he wants to play with his brother until they retire, Anaheim is probably his only choice for now.
Hossa is even more far-fetched. Unless Marian has completely given up on winning the Cup, do you think he will sign with the Canucks after two consecutive playoff final apperances?? He wants the Cup, and he wants it next season. With the Cap pretty much what it was last year, I would think staying in Detroit and signing a long-term contract will prevent any further humiliation from the fans.
This is why I think the fun will only just begin tomorrow morning. This will be interesting, especially for the Canucks.